8.3 Globotics

• activities with interpersonal contacts hardly digitalised (management tasks, teaching, nursing)

• activities with large repetitive share likely to be highly digitalised (office work, sales, service) -> represent significant share of activites in the USA, esp. low-skilled

• clear need for action -> people with low qualifications need new activities

Germany - prognosis (Eberl, 2016)

• distinction between activies with very high probablity of automation (>70%) and activities with very low probablity of automation (<30%)

• very high probablity of automation:

  • office and secretarial staff -> 2.7 million jobs

  • sales experts -> 1.1 mio jobs

  • catering -> 1 mio.

  • commercial/technical business economists -> 0.9 mio

  • postal and delivery services, cooks, bank clerks, warehouse manage- ment/logistics, metalworking, and accounting also show a considerable risk of loss

• very low probablity of automation

  • childcare/education

  • health care/ nursing

  • management/corporate organization/strategy

  • mechanical engineering/industrial engineering, automotive engineering

  • sales/purchasing/trade,

  • social work/pedagogy,

  • care of the elderly,

  • university teaching/research, and construction electrics

• Economist Richard Baldwin

• globalisation mixed with new kinds of robotics, from artifical intelligence to technologies that make it easier to outsource service jobs

  • service sector -> exposed to worldwide competition b/c of digitisation

    
    

    telemigration: outsourcing and activities carried out remotely i.e. cleaning robots managed from abroad -> countries with lower wages win; industrial nations loose jobs

• old thinking: “more skills, learning, training, and experience”

• new needed thinking: what areas cannot be replace by AI, what can AI NOT do? -> i.e. skills needed for activites with frequent interpersonal contact; i.e. soft skills

• promotes creativity and empathy

• also: skills to develop robots -> design, handling algorithms

• analytical and innovative thinking will be essential

• Critical thinking and the ability to solve complex problems,

• much less important: all manual/haptic abilities, skills such as memory and the ability to formulate