Kap. 2

state of being definite

situation where the results and probability of occurence are known

situation where the results are known, but the probability is NOT

situation where neither the results, nor the probability is known

decision under uncertainty, not calculatable

large upside potential, high risks/uncertainty

• liability of newness

• liability of smallness

• uncertainty of supply

• uncertainty of demand

• competitive uncertainty

• dependency on founders

normative: how should people decide,

descriptive: how people really decide

expected value EV,

expected utility U,

doesn’t take personal risk attitude into account

adds perceived personal utility into equation,

cognitive biases

decision making process divided into two systems:

1. thinking fast / editing phase: heuristics

2. thinking slow / evaluation phase

confirmation,

hindsight,

self-serving,

anchoring,

availability bias

representativeness,

availability,

anchoring and adjustment

less time on DD,

higher financial success,

higher risk appetite,

more invests,

• Conflict of Interest

• Different risk attitude

• Asymmetric information

Hidden characteristics->adverse selection

hidden information / action -> moral hazard