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Buffl
Buffl
Value Based Business Management Bamberger

Forecasting & Modeling Basics

HH
by Henrik H.

What is the basis of fundamental analysis?

  • understand an map the major forces that drive the success of a business model

  • indentify/ understand

  • analyze the environment/ industry/ corporate structure

  • understand the cost structure

  • Forecast by historic data



What is a business model?

  • mapping the main cash flow and value generating elements

  • Focus und relevant factors

  • Complexity reduction


Name 5 must have in your business plan! 5 relavante Faktoren

  • Process of generating cash flows or income

  • Use of resources

  • Form of organisation

  • Competencies and weaknesses

  • External influencing factors


Picture a classical Business Model


Explain the Pestel Method to analyze the Environment

  • Tries to explain the macro environment of a company

  1. Political: Government policies and stability, tax policy, trade restrictions and tariffs, political stability.

  2. Economic: Economic growth, exchange rates, inflation rate, interest rates, unemployment rate, consumer confidence.

  3. Socio-cultural: Population demographics, education levels, cultural norms, lifestyle changes, attitudes towards work and leisure.

  4. Technological: Technological advancements, automation, research and development, technology incentives, access to new technologies.

  5. Environmental: Environmental regulations, climate change, sustainability issues, environmental protection initiatives.

  6. Legal: Labor laws, consumer protection laws, health and safety regulations, international and national legislation.


What is the main differences between the Analysis of established companies and young companies in rather new/ old markets.


Describe the outside in and the inside out approach


Describe the inside out perspective


Describe Porters five forces


Companies need ressources to operate in their field of buisness. Which kind of ressources do you know and how can these be differntiated?

Tangible:

  • Land , buildings, mashines, inventory, cash

Intangible:

  • relational ressources: reputation, relations, network

  • competencies: knowledge, skills, attitude, patents

  • other: access to raw material



What are the 4 characteristics of strategic ressources?

1. Valuable

2. Special / different from others

3. Difficult to immitate

4. Difficult to substitute


What does the Swot combines and what are the main parts of the SWOT Analysis?

SWOT explicitly combines Inside-Out with Outside-In perspektives and askes about the „FIT“


What are the 4 main questions we can derive through the SWOT Analysis?

  1. How can the company use its strenghts to realise which opportunities?

  2. Which opportunities will not be realised by the company?

  3. Can Threats become more dangerous due to specific weaknesses of the company?

  4. Can the company use some strengths to remove certain threats?


You can devide the the groups of Company/ Market Analysis in two cluster. Please give the Name of these two cluster and fill them with examples of analysis. (Nicht besonders wichtig)

  1. Analysis of market and competition (external)

    • PEST/EL, Porters Five Forces, Strategic Groups, Target Group Analysis, Industry Dynamics

      —> Goal is to figure out Opportunities and Threat

  1. Analysis of the Business, Ressources and Core Competences

    • Value Chain Analysis, Core Competences, Strategies and their changes

      —> Goal is to figure out strenght and weaknesses

Combined you can perform a SWOT Analysis



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Henrik H.

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