Conserved Energy
Energy can neither be created nor be destroyed, although it can be convertedfrom one form into another (many forms are known)
Extensive Energy
Extensive means that the energy of a whole system is equal to the sum of theenergies of all of its parts.
The oil market
In the short-run, volatility estimates for oil may work=> hedging in future markets possible
On the medium and long-run forecasts and predictions are often worthless
It makes more sense to watch out for sensitivity measures when calculating projects
primary energy markets
Oil is the price setter for primary energies.
Medium and long-run forecasts for the oil price do not make much sense. In the short run, volatilities may be hedged.
The cross border prices of imported primary energies are the mostimportant value and determine industry and consumer energy prices.
The only cost-covering fossil energy source in Germany is brown coal/lignite.
Renewable primary energies (sun, wind, hydro power) are free of cost andunlimited
Price setting follows the customer‘s alternative energy source principle
energy projects
Strict separation of fixed and variable costs absolutely necessary
Sensitivity analysis of energy prices for different price scenarios is better andmore important than price forecasts.
For calculations, take 12 months average prices of energies. The lead/lagrelationship between oil and other fossil fuels is usually 1-3 months.
Sensitivity analysis should consider rising and falling energy prices.
Alternative energy principle is important for the calculation of competitiveenergy sources, especially if the fuel prices between alternatives differ much
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