Certainty
state of being definite
risk
situation where the results and probability of occurence are known
uncertainty
situation where the results are known, but the probability is NOT
Insecurity
situation where neither the results, nor the probability is known
investment decision
decision under uncertainty, not calculatable
trade off investment decision
large upside potential, high risks/uncertainty
types of uncertainties
liability of newness
liability of smallness
uncertainty of supply
uncertainty of demand
competitive uncertainty
dependency on founders
Decision theory
normative: how should people decide,
descriptive: how people really decide
traditional economic factors
expected value EV,
expected utility U,
doesn’t take personal risk attitude into account
Expected utility theory Bernoulli
adds perceived personal utility into equation,
cognitive biases
prospect theory
decision making process divided into two systems:
thinking fast / editing phase: heuristics
thinking slow / evaluation phase
confirmation,
hindsight,
self-serving,
anchoring,
availability bias
heuristics prospect theory
representativeness,
availability,
anchoring and adjustment
RWTH study on heuristic decisions
less time on DD,
higher financial success,
higher risk appetite,
more invests,
Assumptions VC PAT
Conflict of Interest
Different risk attitude
Asymmetric information
Risks PAT before Investment
Hidden characteristics->adverse selection
Risks PAT after investment
hidden information / action -> moral hazard
Zuletzt geändertvor 8 Monaten