Buffl

Lecture 7 to 11

DK
von Dawid K.

Porter’s Five Forces Framework (+Governement)

The Five Forces framework determines the long-term profit potential (attractiveness) of an industry by analyzing the struggle for value capture among key players. A “strong” force drives profitability down.


  1. Threat of Entry: High barriers (capital requirements, patents, scale economies) protect incumbent profits. If barriers are low, new entrants flood in and compete away profits.

  2. Supplier Power: Powerful suppilers (concentrated, unique inputs) can squeeze industry profits by raising input costs.

  3. Buyer Power: Powerful buyers (concentrated, low switching costs) can force prices down or demand higher quality, reducing industry margins.

  4. Threat of Substitute: Products from other industries that meet the same need place a ceiling on prices. If the industry raises prices, customers switch to the substitute

  5. Rivarly: Intense competition (price wars) destroy value. It is driven by many competitors, slow growth, high fixed costs, and high exit barriers.

  • Example: Soft Drink Industry

    1. Threat of Entry (Low)

    • Barriers: Extremely High, The “Cola Wars” created massive brand loyalty and advertising barriers. New entrants cannot match the marketing spend of incumbents.

    • Distribution: Coke and Pepsi have exclusive contracts with bottlers and huge sway over supermarket shelf space, making it nearly impossible for a new soda brand to get distributed globally

    1. Supplier Power (Low)

    • Inputs: The main ingredients are commodities: sugar, water, and corn syrup.

    • Power: Suppliers of these commodities have zero bargaining power against giant buyers like Coca-Cola. If one sugar supplier raises prices, Coke can easily switch to another.

    1. Buyer Power (Medium)

    • The Bottlers: The immediate buyers are the Bottlers (who buy the concentrate). They have little power because they are often locked into long-term franchise agreements or are partially owned by the parent company (e.g., Coca-Cola Enterprises)

    • Retailers (Supermarkets): They have some power but need to stock "must-have" brands like Coke and Pepsi to get customers in the door.

    • Consumers: Individual buyers have high brand loyalty (recall the "New Coke" backlash), which reduces their sensitivity to small price increases.

    1. Threat of substitutes (High)

    • The Threat: This is the biggest headache for the industry today. Substitutes include water, juice, tea, coffee, and energy drinks.

    • Health Trends: As consumers become health-conscious, they switch away from sugary sodas. Coke is fighting this by diversifying into "still drinks" (water, juice) to capture the substitute market itself.

    1. Rivarly (High but “Gentlemany”)

    • Tructure: A Duopoly (Coke vs. Pepsi).

      Nature of Fight: They compete intensely on Advertising and Differentiation (e.g., The Pepsi Challenge, Super Bowl ads), but they rarely compete on Price.

    • Why? Price wars destroy profits for both. Branding wars expand the total market. This "disciplined rivalry" allows both firms to remain highly profitable.

    1. Complements

    • Exclusive Partnerships: Coca-Cola has a legendary exclusive partnership with McDonald's, ensuring that every Big Mac sold creates a sale for Coke. Pepsi owns the rights to Yum! Brands (Taco Bell, KFC, Pizza Hut).

    • Forward Integration (Hardware): Coke and Pepsi often give vending machines and coolers to small retailers for free (or heavily subsidized). Why? Because the Cooler is a complement that makes the product "cold and ready," drastically increasing its value to the consumer compared to a warm can on a shelf.

    1. Government

    • Regulation (Sugar Taxes): Governments worldwide (e.g., Mexico, UK, parts of USA) have implemented "Soda Taxes" to combat obesity. This artificially raises prices, which increases the Threat of Substitutes (making water/juice relatively cheaper) and creates price sensitivity among Buyers.

    • Environmental Policy (Packaging): Strict regulations on single-use plastics (e.g., EU Directives) force companies to redesign packaging or pay for recycling schemes. This increases Supplier Power (demand for specialized recycled PET) and raises fixed costs, creating a higher Barrier to Entry for small firms that can't afford the transition.

    • Health & Labeling Laws: Mandatory warning labels or bans on sales in schools (e.g., "Smart Snacks in School" standards in the US) restrict access to distribution channels. This reduces the total addressable market and forces reformulation of products (R&D costs).


Government as a Force

  1. The Core Concept: According to Michael Porter, Government should not be analyzed as a standalone "Sixth Force" (like Suppliers or Buyers). Instead, it is a Factor—a variable that influences the other five forces.

    • The Logic: Government involvement is neither inherently good nor bad for industry profitability. Its impact depends entirely on how it affects the specific industry structure at a specific time.

    • The Analogy: Porter compares the Five Forces to Gravity (fundamental, permanent laws of industry structure) and Government Policy to Prevailing Winds (transitory conditions that can change direction and intensity). You cannot ignore the wind, but it doesn't change the laws of physics.

  2. How Government Influences the 5 Forces: Government policy is an input that alters the strength of the forces.

    • Raising Barriers to Entry:

      • Patents: Government-granted monopolies (IP rights) legally block new entrants, boosting profit potential for incumbents (e.g., Pharmaceuticals).

      • Licensing: Strict licensing requirements (e.g., in Banking) prevent new banks from opening easily, protecting the profits of existing banks.

    • Increasing Rivalry (Negative Impact):

      • Over-Licensing: If the government issues too many licenses, it creates excess supply and destroys industry profits.

      • Example: Nation TV Licensing. Granting too many broadcasting licenses fragmented the market and destroyed profitability for everyone.

  3. Specific Examples of Intervention:

    • Higher Education in MK (North Macedonia): Government accreditation policies determine who can enter the education market (Barrier to Entry).

    • Privatization of Medicine: Shifting General Practices from state to private ownership alters the Rivalry and Buyer Power dynamics in healthcare.

    • Legalizing Marijuana: A regulatory change that instantly creates a new industry, lowers Barriers to Entry(previously illegal), and creates massive Threat of Substitutes for alcohol/painkillers.


Author

Dawid K.

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