Problems DDM
Dividends reflect disbursement of funds, rather than firm’s performance
lots of stuff is pushed into ∞
its easier to reason about future market size, profitability etc.
Clean Surplus Relation
EQ t = EQ t-1 + NI t - Div t
Residual Income
RI t = (ROE t - r) * EQ t-1
RI t = NI t - r * EQ t-1
Value Creation
ROE > r
-> Return on equity must exceed expected return r
(no sustainable competive advantage: ROE -> r)
Core value driver
Profitability (ROE)
Risk / cost of equity (r)
Investmentgrowth (g) -> growth RI
Turnover
Turnover = Sales t / EQ t-1
Turnover^-1 = Capital Intensity
Capital Itensity
CapInt t = Equity t-1 / Sales t
Last changed6 days ago